A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
